The likelihood is that the IPC umbrella will be torn. The prospect of UPC withdrawing from IPC is now real. This is becoming clearer courtesy of comments by two opposition politicians.

Jeema's Asuman Basalirwa makes a very contentious statement that: "No other opposition party [except FDC] has the capacity to field a candidate [in] every position of leadership. UPC cannot agree to that! UPC's London chairman, Joseph Ochieno, said as much, that most members of the party are now realizing that "FDC has been taking them for a ride".

In so far as Miria Obote was the president of UPC, inter-party co-operation had its sensible dynamic. She signed the initial protocols alongside the FDC president, Dr. Kizza Besigye, with regards to the performance of the two parties both inside and outside Parliament. Then, Besigye took precedence; the other participating parties merely strung along.

When in April Dr. Olara Otunnu took over the helm of the UPC, a different dynamic set in. Whereas earlier, Miria's only claim to seriously contest the leadership of IPC was the nationalist legacy of UPC in gaining independence for the country, Otunnu lent to the UPC a credible revival of its flagging fortunes; and providing a very spirited contest to take power from the shameful NRM. For this, Besigye would stand in the way - unless he was ready to play second fiddle to Otunnu.

Besigye is the problem. Despite his protestations to the contrary, many among the UPC rank and file do not look at him kindly, regarding him still as a part of and leftover from the corrupt, inept, discriminatory and an unruly NRM. They keep on mulling over his days as a rebel in the NRA; and then his performance in the NRM government, previous to his assumption of the FDC presidency. What they see is not encouraging.

When Otunnu talks about an independent inquiry into the conduct of the war in the Luwero Triangle, shivers must run down Besigye's spine as it does to his former colleagues who are simply petrified at the prospect. In the bush, Besigye was the doctor of Yoweri Museveni, the NRA leader, and as such he is a repository of information to some of the most horrendous atrocities and human rights abuses committees against the people of Uganda, even then.

As a political commissar in the early days of the regime, again, Besigye was witness, and indeed part of the decision-making processes that went into such massacres that took place in Bur Choro and Mukura. Also he must have witnessed, and perhaps been part of, the onset of the fabric of corruption as it was laid down right from the 1989 currency exchange.

His wife, Winnie Byanyima, was part and parcel of this whole comradeship. Indeed during the campaigns for the 2006 elections, she warned Museveni to lay off her husband lest she revealed some damning stuff. The fact that nothing extremely damaging has come out so far is an indication that Museveni complied.

So Besigye has urgent reasons to be the IPC flag bearer, if only to smother and scuttle the dirt from his past, if he became the president of the country.

This is because a coalition of parties against the NRM stands an easier chance of capturing power - if the political playing field is leveled. (It is still winnable with UPC going it alone). This would also be good for NRM's Museveni as Besigye would in all likelihood provide a softer landing for him, than would, for instance, Otunnu.

At the other end, Otunnu would shake up everything; his Ten Point Programme (a curious coincidence with Museveni's naming of his, more than 26 years earlier) recently announced in London, points to that. Otunnu's resistance to the manner in which Besigye is shanghaiing the process of selecting the IPC president and the other parliamentary candidates, is not only a reaction against all of the above, but also about laying the foundation for the forthcoming presidential campaign.

UPC has consistently argued that it is still in the process of reviving and laying its grass root party structures; and as such it should be given more time to come round to participate in the IPC elections. But Besigye is in an undue hurry.

It maybe because he has created a lopsided influence in the IPC: all the major interim executive posts in the IPC secretariat are manned by FDC members. It would therefore be considerably easier for FDC to tilt the choice of the IPC president in Besigye's favour.

The issue of the composition of the EC has not yet been resolved. Otunnu has strenuously insisted that the Badru Kiggundu EC will not manage the poll; that it has to be an independent body with and impartial judge and members of all parties being commissioners. Then of recent is the debatable voters register which, even the NRM, agrees is inflated.

This has to be first weeded and properly rationalized before the elections can be held. The most probable scenario this equation brings in is that the general elections will have to be postponed beyond the February 2011 date. 

Obviously this will upset some apple carts. One of these is the issue of federalism. Until IPC comes up with a unified position on this, it would be "jumping the gun" by running up some premature propositions. It is now being put forward that Suubi 2011's Mulyanyamuli Ssemogerere is put as a "compromise candidate". Compromise for who?

Otunnu is arguing that Buganda (and therefore, federalism) is crucial for Uganda's well being. That being the case the IPC would have had to thrash it out such that it is acceptable to all: that position is yet unclear.

It is now considerable that a federal structure for all Uganda may be the way forward. UPC is pushing for this; FDC's position is tame. This should be the campaign issue for the 2011 general elections that would make all regions and tribes inclusive.                           

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