Varied explanations, interpretations, assumptions and guesses by assorted people continue being made following UPC’s withdrawal from the IPC. They vary from the well-meaning to the antagonistic and intimidating.

Immediately after the announcement, there were jubilant voices from opposing sides. The hostile but overjoyed group declared that, “UPC is now finished; they cannot do without IPC.”

The scaring assumption here is that the FDC lent weight to the cooperation and that UPC as a minnow within, it could not survive independently. This view has adherents and proponents who want to fan it and cause uncertainty in the party.

To some extent they have made an impact. On the one hand it is what is being peddled as a “revolt” against party president, Dr. Olara Otunnu. One or two MPs have identified with this view. FDC’s Odonga Otto, is even noted as holding a sectarian position that Otunnu has betrayed the Acholi by pulling out of IPC.  Why is this?

In the last election, the greater north and east predominantly voted FDC; there were dotted UPCs here and there. UPC voters “sheltered” in FDC as the NRM ravaged the area with the excuse of fighting rebellion.

The voters were hard-pressed to identify with a party that was presented as that of rebels, and therefore treasonous; so they took their discontent to the next best thing – FDC. Also UPC did not, probably could not at the time, present a forceful position and leader.

This no longer holds. Otunnu has thrown down the gauntlet in a vigorous challenge to the president, Mr. Yoweri Museveni. In so doing he has created a greater hope for the people of the region; they no longer need to “shelter from the rain”, as former ESO boss, David Pulkol, put it when he was rejoining the party in April.

If they are coming to bask in the UPC sun, by inference, they no longer need the FDC shelter. Thus Otto is seeing that the Aruu voters, who brought him to Parliament, are likely not going to be there this time round; they will most likely vote for a UPC candidate.

Otunnu has pulled the rug from under, not only Otto’s, but all FDC feet.  Facing such a scenario, who would not be bitter against Otunnu?

The other serious case being peddled as a revolt is attributed to Benson Ogwal. He is one of the smatterings of the UPC MPs. Voices among the party faithful are now being heard equating this to the position taken by the founding president, the late Dr. Apollo Milton Obote, when he ordered UPC members not to participate in previous elections.

Obote’s argument, still prevailing anyway, was that it lent credibility to the dictatorship. The dictatorship instead entrenched itself.

Ogwal’s was one of the dissenting voices and they went ahead and participated; he was duly elected. The argument here is that being in Parliament keeps UPC “afloat” in the hostile atmosphere. This narrow view is promoted by people who are individualistic and have a limited point of view of public service. It has the effect of dulling the UPC senses of seeking power and being merely accommodating, either NRM or FDC.

The way it is presented is that Otunnu does not want UPC to participate in the forthcoming general elections. To the contrary, Otunnu has been at great pains to emphasize that UPC wants to participate in a “free and fair” poll.

It is now plain to everybody that this cannot happen with the Museveni Electoral Commission; therefore that the EC must be changed. The impatience this pose has caused is that Otunnu is keeping to his chest on “how” and “when” this is going to be achieved.

The other hostile and threatening position is guarded about UPC being finished. On reflection and when the dust had settled down on the pulling out of the IPC, they saw UPC as a credible threat.

These people had understood this long before the disagreement. The arrangement was to keep UPC within the IPC in order to silence its voice. This is especially so when Otunnu began calling for an independent inquiry into the Luwero Triangle atrocities and other human rights abuses.

FDC can easily be taken for a splinter of NRM. In 1998 Dr. Kizza Besigye penned his opposing letter to Museveni, as a situation held by PAFU, the Parliamentary association of dissenting voices from the NRM.  PAFU then became FA or the Forum for Action and then becoming FDC.

It has now transformed into IPC, pretending that it is a political party; all along gathering momentum and seeking to swallow and include the other voices opposed to NRM. But in so doing it has come along with an unnecessary and incriminating baggage.

UPC has halted that development. This had set in place the NRM disinformation and propaganda departments to infiltrate the IPC and attempt to render UPC toothless. The reported meetings between NRM’s Inspector General of Police, Kale Kayihura, and Besigye lend weight to this.

It is thought that Besigye has bent to his former colleagues as Otunnu is being used as a bogey. One of the most outlandish rumours being peddled is that Museveni has bribed Otunnu.

This view is that Otunnu is so compromised that whichever way you look at it, UPC would be “finished”. But this is ridiculous. How can Otunnu, who has consistently accused Museveni of trying to kill him, accept money from his would-be assassin? Who would it be easier to bribe: Otunnu or Besigye?

In a way this is showing the desperation the NRM disinformation has arrived at in trying to “contain” the Otunnu train; they will stop at nothing to try to smear and so reduce him to their level of moral and actual corruption. It is unfortunate that some UPC members are not aware and are buying into the disinformation and propaganda being put forth as truth.

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