He now has to kill the suspicion that he is an opposition activist

Hon Sekikubo's newly rediscovered victory has set a precedent from which the ruling party will take very long to recover. I have heard them swearing to dispose of the 600 or so election petitions in the course of one week; did I hear them correctly?

This week whoever tuned in to NBS TV's 'Morning Breeze programme must have heard opposition politicians celebrating Hon Sekikubo's victory as their own.

Many jubilated that in Sekikubo they had defeated the 'NRM dictatorship' and that this was just the beginning of what was coming in 2011. In short, they have deified Hon Theodorus Sekikubo as their own man within the NRM ranks, a tag which the youthful firebrand must shed as soon as he can to avoid a fatal misunderstanding.

As Shawn Kimuli and Joy Doreen Biira presided over 'Morning Breeze', at least two callers said they were sure that Sekikubo had lost the election but that President Museveni feared that he would cross to the opposition. They were politely saying that the NRM juggernaut had rigged the results in Sembabule to favour Sekikubo against his vanquisher, Patrick Nkalubo.

One even suggested that Nkalubo must have been given, or promised, a very heavy bribe to brazenly admit that he had earlier won votes by ghosts.
Another confidently stated that President Museveni had feared that opposition parties would swiftly accommodate Hon Sekikubo and use him to wrest Sembabule away from NRM forever.

Let me add that all opposition politicians I have spoken to have been rubbing their palms in anticipation of listing Sekikubo among their own. Unfortunately he seems to have let then down by celebrating his victory in a party (NRM) which they prefer dead.

Very many opposition politicians anticipate that Sekikubo will cross to their parties tomorrow the very latest, but I have always asked them to list crucial NRM bills which Hon Sekikubo ever opposed in parliament in order to become opposition darling. The truth is that his private ire against Hon Amama Mbabazi and Hon Sam Kutesa has convinced them that he actually hates his own ruling party! They will soon drop him like a hot potato…

Sembabule fallout

Let us not forget recent television footage of a tearful Sekikubo pleading with Returning Officer Salim Kulembera not to read the results he was disputing. And Kulembera still stands by the results he announced, although his bosses at NRM Electoral Commission insist they had got it wrong.

Let us remember that thousands who celebrated Nkalubo's victory are now going into mourning, in ashes and sack-cloth, with many convinced that 'their man' was out-rigged by higher authorities. And it must not be forgotten that Nkalubo's supporters (now in mourning) and Sekikubo's supporters (fresh from mourning) all belong to the same party. But is there a guarantee that Nkalubo and his group will vote Sekikubo because of their membership to the NRM?

Re-Rigging bonanza?

The same scenario applies to 500 election petitioners who are convinced that justice can only be just if their opponents are ruled out of order. Since this is not likely to happen, we can count on at least 490 Independent Candidates (minus Sekikubo and a few others) who subscribe to the NRM, but who do not fear to defy the NRM over matters crucial to their private wellbeing.

It is suspected that the bigwigs might reverse many electoral verdicts in order to control the damage that arose from the reckless decision to adopt universal adult suffrage for selecting party flag bearers. And when actual untainted victories are reversed for political expediency, or if NRN re-rigs the generally rigged primaries, the chicken will have come home to roost!

Why elections are rigged?

In 2007 I had the privilege to observe elections in Kenya where the somewhat smooth and well organized exercise was spoilt at the last hour as the perceived loser  strangely was declared the winner in a manner that shocked and squeezed life out of many a sensible human being.

From June till last week the ruling NRM of Uganda was electing her flag bearers in the national elections and also electing party leaders.  The whole exercise, to say the least, was characterized by scenes of violence, buying of votes and vote rigging.

And because the vote rigging reached such alarming levels some of us who were part of the election commission of the party were instead of being addressed as election commissioners of the National Resistance Movement we were being called election "commotioners" of the National Rigging Movement (NRM).

My experience in elections has shown the different people rig elections for different reason and these are among the most pregnant ones.

Fear to lose

Unlike in developed democracies where losing and winning is part of the game, in Africa most Politicians don't have the word defeat in their vocabularies and perhaps it's not in their DNA to concede defeat. Even those who are aware that they have no support once they lose an election will claim to have been rigged out. It is this fear of defeat that Politicians desperately look for or create loopholes from where to rig elections to the disbelief of the whole world. For instance at times voters' registers are inflated with ghost people.

Artificial false glory

Some politicians in their wisdom think and feel that the world or the country or their communities cannot exist without them. This is where we find leaders who were once respected like Robert Mugabe having the audacity to say that they were sent by God to rule and no one can take them away from power. Such are statements unpopular incumbent leaders make when they realize that their ground is slippery and could lose elections.

Fear of persecution

During campaigns some politicians take bank loans to finance their election. Therefore they will try every means to rig elections so that they can have the chance to pay back the loans. Besides some are criminals that once they are not leaders thy feel the course of justice would transcend on them. For example this is the reason why some presidents prefer to die as presidents than to let go of the seat and be persecuted by their successors like the case was in Zambia for Kenneth Kaunda and Fredrick Chiluba.

Pressure from influential supporters

It is said that Dr Milton Obote had reached an extent of conceding defeat in 1980 but the powerful Paul Muwanga and other army officials as the head of the body that organized elections decided otherwise. This culminated into Democratic Party being robbed of victory and thus Uganda peoples' congress forming government.

This was the case in 2007 in Kenya. People who had accumulated wealth under the past regimes were so scared of change that they worked hard to fail it even when the mafia of from Mount Kenya ( Mwai Kibaki )was ready and willing to accept defeat

Weak election body

The success of any election very much depend s on the body that is organizing the elections. If the election body is not properly facilitated and is not constituted by people of integrity then chances are that shrewd politicians can easily manipulate their way to victory through vote rigging. In South Africa within the ruling ANC Jacob Zuma manage d to beat then incumbent Thabo Mbeki just because the electoral commission was somewhat independent.

Finally in Ghana the change of government democratically was largely because the electoral commission was very independent and up for the task. Election bodies must be constituted by people with experience and perhaps enough training so that elections in the end can be handled well.