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Covid cases to peak in Mid July

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Covid cases to peak in Mid July

NPA ED, Dr. Joseph Muvawalala

The National Planning Authority (NPA) has projected the Covid-19 infections in Uganda to reach the maximum peak in the middle of July.

Addressing journalists at the Uganda Media Center, the NPA Executive Director Joseph Muvawala said NPA together with Pennsylvania State University in March 2020, developed a model, that makes predictions of COVID-19 infection cases for every two weeks.

He says the model which has been in use since 2020 and has proved to be 97% accurate, predicts a peak in the middle of July.

“The model projects that the curve is still raising and it will most likely reach a peak in the middle of July. This implies that in mid-July, the COVID-19 infections will be reaching the maximum peak,” Muvawala said.

He says despite the current lockdown measures, new model projections indicate a continuing rise in new cases but slightly lower than the previous week averaging 1,037 new cases per day.

“The model is projecting a total of 7,259 new cases for the week of 27th June to 3rd July 2021 and 7,214 for 4th to 10th July,” he said

He added, “In the week of June 12th to 19th June, the model projected 10,144 cases, and the actual reported cases were 9,926. In the week of June 20th to 26th, the model projected 10,468 new cases and the actual reported cases were 7,329,”

Muvawala says the Internal factors are the dominant contributors of new cases in the country and in this case includes the effectiveness of lockdown measures, capacity of the health systems, population structure in terms of age & underlying conditions, population density, access to health services, among others.

Muvawala says this data is an indicator and a warning against complacency in established public health prevention procedures against Covid-19.

“ The public is advised to strictly adhere to the SOPs to slow the rising cases and the consequences on the health sector. There is also need for increased testing, more enforcement of the lockdown measures to curb community transmissions and in increased public awareness aimed at behavioral change in the local population,” Muvawala said.

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